## Shuttle NAL demo

### 1. Premises
Assumptions below are fabricated demo assumptions, not factual shuttle claims.

```lisp
((==> (--> orbiter-flightworthy yes) (--> launch-readiness-support yes)) (stv 0.9 0.9))
((==> (--> launch-readiness-support yes) (--> shuttle-reaches-orbit yes)) (stv 0.8 0.9))
((--> orbiter-flightworthy yes) (stv 0.8 0.9))

((==> (--> unresolved-aging-risk high) (--> shuttle-reaches-orbit no)) (stv 0.8 0.9))
((--> unresolved-aging-risk high) (stv 0.55 0.9))
```

### 2. Success derivation, corrected step-by-step
```lisp
(|- ((==> (--> orbiter-flightworthy yes) (--> launch-readiness-support yes)) (stv 0.9 0.9))
    ((--> orbiter-flightworthy yes) (stv 0.8 0.9)))
=> (((--> launch-readiness-support yes) (stv 0.72 0.5184)))

(|- ((==> (--> launch-readiness-support yes) (--> shuttle-reaches-orbit yes)) (stv 0.8 0.9))
    ((--> launch-readiness-support yes) (stv 0.72 0.5184)))
=> (((--> shuttle-reaches-orbit yes) (stv 0.576 0.26873855999999996)))
```

### 3. Failure derivation
```lisp
(|- ((==> (--> unresolved-aging-risk high) (--> shuttle-reaches-orbit no)) (stv 0.8 0.9))
    ((--> unresolved-aging-risk high) (stv 0.55 0.9)))
=> (((--> shuttle-reaches-orbit no) (stv 0.44000000000000006 0.35640000000000005)))
```

### 4. Interpretation
- Pro chain conclusion: `((--> shuttle-reaches-orbit yes) (stv 0.576 0.26873855999999996))`
- Con chain conclusion: `((--> shuttle-reaches-orbit no) (stv 0.44000000000000006 0.35640000000000005))`
- So this toy NAL setup yields explicit competing conclusions.
- The positive chain has higher frequency; the negative chain has higher confidence.