Experiment: pre-discount confidence to simulate time passage, then revise against uncertainty prior.
| Starting Conf | Revised Freq | Revised Conf | Freq Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.72 | 0.883 | 0.728 | -0.017 |
| 0.58 | 0.870 | 0.599 | -0.030 |
| 0.47 | 0.855 | 0.499 | -0.045 |
| 0.30 | 0.818 | 0.351 | -0.082 |
| 0.15 | 0.745 | 0.223 | -0.155 |
Same decayed belief (0.9, 0.47) revised against different priors:
| Prior | Temperament | Revised Freq | Revised Conf |
|---|---|---|---|
| (0.3, 0.1) | Pessimistic | 0.833 | 0.499 |
| (0.5, 0.1) | Neutral | 0.855 | 0.499 |
| (0.7, 0.1) | Optimistic | 0.878 | 0.499 |
Rule: chase implies predator (stv 1.0, 0.9). Premise decayed at multiple levels:
| Premise Conf | Conclusion Freq | Conclusion Conf | Conf Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.47 | 0.9 | 0.381 | -0.089 |
| 0.30 | 0.9 | 0.243 | -0.057 |
Weaker premises yield weaker conclusions. NACE plans built on stale beliefs get low confidence, favoring fresh-evidence plans.
Self-revision is NOT idempotent: revising (0.9, 0.47) against itself yields conf 0.639. NAL treats duplicates as independent evidence. NACE systems need event-tagging or deduplication to prevent reinforcement loops.
Prior selection = NPC personality. Confidence decay = time simulation. Chain degradation = planning under uncertainty.